Fantasy Draft Special: Rookies
| By Dave Gladow NFL.com |
The Class of 2006
(May 3, 2006) -- Well, after 239 hours of continuous coverage of the 2006 NFL Draft on NFL Network and ESPN [Ha ha, not really, it was actually 238 hours of continuous coverage.], it's time for hundreds of clueless writers and television personalities to come up with their ridiculous rankings of how all the teams did. We've got them all beat. We're going to do something even more ridiculous by ascribing fantasy value to some of the top players. How's that for truth in journalism?
The sad fact is that it's all speculation at this point. No one on Earth can tell you how these players are actually going to do -- of course, we're not going to let that stop us. We can be wrong with these rankings, or we can be spectacularly wrong. But at least it makes for some interesting offseason debate (interesting to fantasy football junkies at least).
Running back rankings
1. DeAngelo Williams -- Carolina
Now before you get out the pitchforks and torches, here's a quick explanation as to why super-god Reggie Bush is not No.1 on our list. For one thing, these rankings are for single season leagues, not keeper leagues. You'll notice our keeper choice below is, in fact, Mr. Bush. But more importantly, we think Williams can grab the No. 1 job in Carolina from Day 1, while every other rookie back looks like he'll be platooning. Want some evidence to back this up? DeShaun Foster, the NFL's version of humpty dumpty, set a career high last year in games started with a whopping five. Need more? Foster's career rushing touchdowns: four. Yeah, we like Williams' chances to see the field early and often in Carolina.
Keeper leagues: Reggie Bush
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| Reggie Bush has amazing ability and a winning smile -- he can't miss! |
Think Marshall Faulk. Now, realistically speaking, it's not entirely fair to expect that sort of impact in the kid's first season, but he definitely has that sort of long-term potential. And with relatively little wear from his college days, and with his abilities as a receiver which limit his between-the-tackle touches -- which result in a much slower wear-down rate -- he should have a looooong career. For the time being, expect him to make an immediate major impact as a receiver, with more moderate success as a runner. And with Deuce McAllister still around to steal touches, that's enough to bump down his first-year value.
Keeper leagues: Laurence Maroney
3. Joseph Addai -- Indianapolis
He's a nice player, and he definitely has the chance to take over in Indianapolis, but his situation just has the dreaded "running back by committee" approach written all over it. Remember, Dominic Rhodes is a former 1,000-yard rusher and even James Mungro has been known to get the occasional carry. If the team adds another runner the situation will become even murkier.
Keeper leagues: DeAngelo Williams
4. Laurence Maroney -- New England
He's got higher value in keeper leagues, what with Corey Dillon still the No. 1 guy in New England, but with Dillon's injury history, don't expect Maroney to sit on the sideline all season. And even if Dillon can stay healthy, Maroney is simply too good to keep on the bench -- at the very least he will spell Dillon for long stretches.
Keeper leagues: Joseph Addai
5. Leon Washington -- N.Y. Jets
This came down to a battle between Washington and Tennessee's LenDale White, and the deciding factor was this: Is White appreciably better than Chris Brown or Travis Henry? If either or both of those guys can stay healthy, White may get lost in the shuffle in his first year. Things are different in New York, where the Jets have Curtis Martin, who really seemed to break down last year, and not much else. Washington can come in make an impact as a change-of-pace back.
Keeper leagues: LenDale White
Other running backs to consider: LenDale White, Brian Calhoun, Cedric Humes and Jerious Norwood and Maurice Drew in return yardage leagues.
Quarterback rankings
1. Matt Leinart -- Arizona
Leinart is ready, Vince Young is not. That's really all you need to know when evaluating the rookie quarterbacks for 2006. Kurt Warner is a guy who you can pretty much count on getting injured at some point, and the situation ahead of Young is unsettled (Will Steve McNair leave? Can Billy Volek hold down the fort?), so that's basically a wash. Who has the better chance to put up good numbers right away? We like NFL-ready Leinart with superstars Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Edgerrin James in his corner.
Keeper leagues: Jay Cutler
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| With Kurt Warner playing behind Arizona's line, you can expect to see Leinart running for his life soon. |
He should have a chance to see the field at some point this season, because it isn't likely that the Titans will be playing for anything else late in the season anyway. We're just not sure he'll be able to do particularly well if he does play. He has decent long-term value, but Leinart is definitely the favorite for 2006 success.
Keeper leagues: Matt Leinart
3. Kellen Clemens -- N.Y. Jets
We like his upside and think he can be a solid pro, but more importantly, he enters a chaotic situation with the Jets. Will Chad Pennington be able to return from his shoulder problems and stay healthy? Can Patrick Ramsey be a viable long-term option? Brooks Bollinger and Kliff Kingsbury don't seem to be the answer, so maybe Clemens is. He has a good chance at earning some playing time later in the season, and that makes him a better prospect than most of the other rookies.
Keeper leagues: Vince Young
4. Jay Cutler -- Denver
Cutler is not going to beat out Jake Plummer -- it's actually hard to envision that scenario next year. But Cutler is an overwhelming favorite to be the top backup in Denver immediately (Have you looked at their other quarterbacks?), so he'll be one injury away from playing a great deal. You really can't say that about many other rookies.
Keeper leagues: Kellen Clemens
5. Brodie Croyle -- Kansas City
There is no denying Croyle is an extremely heady player, so like Cutler, he should be a favorite to win the backup job from Day 1, which means he's one play away from seeing the field. There's not much else in Kansas City behind Trent Green, so he's a decent long-term option also.
Keeper leagues: Brodie Croyle
Wide receiver rankings
1. Chad Jackson -- New England
It's so difficult to project how rookie wide receivers will fare, that it's almost a crapshoot. Really the best thing to do is to look at a player's chances at immediate playing time -- even though that never seems to work with Atlanta (Michael Jenkins, Roddy White...). Jackson immediately looks like a No. 2 behind Deion Branch, and even if he isn't, the Patriots use so many multiple-receiver sets that he should be able to get on the field regardless.
Keeper leagues: Santonio Holmes
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| The diminutive Sinorice Moss has the ability to make a large impact. |
Like Jackson, he should be forced into action because of Pittsburgh's lack of depth at the position. He ranks below Jackson in the short term due to the Steelers' traditional reliance on the ground game, as well as Pittsburgh's slightly better depth. Cedrick Wilson and Quincy Morgan have been starters in the NFL, and thus Holmes has a slightly tougher climb into the starting lineup.
Keeper leagues: Chad Jackson
3. Sinorice Moss -- N.Y. Giants
He may not ever be expected to be a starter in New York, but that doesn't diminish the type of impact he can make as a slot receiver with Eli Manning chucking him the ball. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him make his presence felt immediately, though he certainly has a cap on his production. His value will be higher in return yardage leagues. Once again, here's a receiver who should benefit from an opportunity to see the field.
Keeper leagues: Greg Jennings
4. Greg Jennings -- Green Bay
Here's a guy who is going to have every opportunity to compete for time right away, and unlike some of the other receivers in this draft, he is polished enough to take advantage. In the long term, his value is probably even higher, as he's a guy who could become a regular starter down the road, but for right now, we rank him behind Moss because Moss is a more dynamic return man and seems perfectly situated for a slot role.
Keeper leagues: Jason Avant
5. Jason Avant -- Philadelphia
This was a tough call, as there were several players drafted in the middle rounds who will be joining receiver-needy teams. Avant is a player known as a possession receiver, and that really makes him a great fit in Philadelphia, where the Eagles could use a good set of hands. Reggie Brown is a nicer big-play threat, and Greg Lewis has more experience, but Avant can immediately join the fray as the fourth wideout, and he should eventually work his way up to No. 2 (though not necessarily this season), because he fills a role no other Eagles receiver does.
Keeper leagues: Sinorice Moss
Other wide receivers to consider: Brandon Williams, Travis Wilson, Willie Reid, Cory Rodgers, Maurice Stovall, and Brad Smith and Michael Robinson in keeper leagues.
Tight end rankings
1. Vernon Davis -- San Francisco
This is really a no-brainer. Davis is the freak of the draft, a gifted athlete who will immediately be expected to become Alex Smith's security blanket. Smith had, by most accounts, a terrible first season in the league, and the best thing he can do until he really starts to figure things out is to play conservatively and take the safe stuff. Davis will give him that, as no linebacker or safety should be able to cover him on a consistent basis. Davis is no sure-fire success in the NFL, but with so much invested in him, the 49ers will throw him the ball. A lot. That's a better guarantee than any other tight end can give you.
Keeper leagues: Vernon Davis
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| Expect Alex Smith to lean on Vernon Davis from the start in San Francisco. |
Similar to Davis, Lewis walks into a situation where he can steal a number of receptions, as the Jaguars really haven't settled on a true pecking order in their receiving corps. The more we thought about it, the more this pick made sense for the Jaguars, a team still looking for an offensive identity. Lewis should see lots of action in 2006.
Keeper leagues: Marcedes Lewis
3. Tony Scheffler -- Denver
There is a huge drop off at this point, as the rest of the players that look good as far as playing time don't look so hot when it comes to getting the ball thrown their way. Scheffler falls into that category, because he should be able to start soon in Denver, but will fight for receptions with Javon Walker, Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie on the roster. He's a slight favorite for this ranking.
Keeper leagues: Anthony Fasano
4. Leonard Pope -- Arizona
Pope has an uphill battle for receptions in Arizona (And that's one big hill!), but he should be able to get significant playing time, which gives him an edge over the other tight ends.
Keeper leagues: Tony Scheffler
5. Anthony Fasano -- Dallas
We'd have thrown one of the St. Louis rookie tight ends on here, but they'll be battling it out with each other, which makes them no better than any other tight end trying to push for time. At best, Fasano will likely be a very distant fourth on the Dallas receiving chart this season, but he's a good enough player to contribute in some fashion right away.
Keeper leagues: Leonard Pope
Other tight ends to consider: Joe Klopfenstein, Dominique Byrd, Dave Thomas, Garrett Mills and Jason Pociask.
And that's about it, folks.
Most years, it's your rookie running backs who are the big favorites to do well. That's even more the case this year, with all of the quarterbacks unlikely to play right away, no real "impact" receivers chosen and just two tight ends likely to have nice seasons.
Overall, we'd say this is a pretty decent crop of players though. You just might have to show more patience than usual with a lot of these guys. In most fantasy drafts, you're going to see about six of these running backs chosen, two or three wideouts and maybe three or four tight ends. Keep in mind that several of these guys are going to be real factors down the road -- just not right now -- so draft accordingly.
