Matchups To Exploit And Avoid: Week 1
Who To Start
QUARTERBACKS
1. Kurt Warner, CARDINALS - Warner will be a great play vs. San Fran. The game is at home, new stadium, sold out and Edge is in the backfield. It could be a wild season opener for the Cardinals' offense. Make sure you have QB Kurt Warner and WRs Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald in your Week One lineup, as they face a 49ers defense that registered a grand total of two sacks in the preseason and have a secondary that is one of the league's worst.
2. Matt Hasselbeck, SEAHAWKS - Most times this season, Hasslebeck is a must start. He is listed here because some question his WR corps (i.e. Jackson injury). Do not question it. You'll see why after he lights up Detroit.
3. Jake Plummer, BRONCOS - Despite the Broncos keeping quiet their choice for RB starter, rest assured Plummer will top 300+ yards against he Rams. RUNNING BACKS 1. Reuben Droughns, BROWNS - Droughns has a great match-up against a questionable Saints defense. 100 yards and a TD.
RUNNING BACKS
1. Brian Westbrook, EAGLES - The first of many times we expect you to see Westbrook's name here. Good match-up vs. Houston. Despite the WRs, Westbrook is McNabb #1 weapon. Houston's defense was atrocious in 2005, finishing dead last in rushing yards and points allowed, and the Texans didn't exactly go crazy adding key personnel in the offseason outside of first-round pick Mario Williams. Look for Westbrook and QB Donovan McNabb to have nice opening-day numbers.
2. Deuce McAllister, SAINTS - Start McAllister now before Reggie Bush steals too many touches. Good match-up on the road against the Browns. He's worth a look.
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, BENGALS - While the Chiefs roll coverage to Chad Johnson, Houshmandzadeh will be the beneficiary. A true "Spotlight Starter."
2. Antonio Bryant, 49ERS - Week one vs. ARZ may be the only time I suggest starting a 49ers WR, however, Bryant looked great in camp. This knucklehead is worth a shot.
3. Drew Bennett, TITANS - Whether it's Volek or Collins at QB, it will not matter. The Jets defense will struggle all season. Bennett's speed should stretch the field for TD chances.
TIGHT ENDS
1. Todd Heap, RAVENS - We are very high on Heap with McNair at QB. Though the Bucs are a tough opponent, Heap will find the end zone and/ or tally some yardage.
2. Dallas Clark, COLTS - As the Jets will look to slow Manning-Harrison-Wayne, Clark may find openings down the middle.
DEFENSE
1. Seattle SEAHAWKS - Led the NFL in a few defensive categories last season, should do the same this year with the addition of LB Peterson. Good match-up vs. Detroit.
2. Philadelphia EAGLES - Look for the Birds to return to their old selves with their stingy Jim Johnson defense. I expect rookie RB Wali Lundi to get a few "welcome to the NFL" type hits.
Welcome back to another years of the famous "Starters & Slackers." Check back here each week during the season to see Fantasy Tailgate make the tough calls on who to start and who to sit on your fantasy roster.
3. Chicago BEARS - The Bears' defense finished first in points allowed and first in average gain per pass play. Brett Favre was picked off six times in his two meetings with Chicago last season, failing to throw a TD pass in the process. The Packers' offense has looked discombobulated for much of the preseason as it adjusts to new players and a new scheme and coaching staff. Get the Bears' defense some work right off the bat.
QUESTION MARKS
1. Thinking about avoiding Steelers WR Hines Ward because Ben Roethlisberger is out? In one of Charlie Batch's two starts last season, Ward went for eight catches, 124 yards and a touchdown, his second-highest output of the entire season.
2. Yes, Mike Shanahan is being coy about his RB depth chart leading into the opener at St. Louis, but Mike Bell will start and deserves to be in your fantasy lineup against a Rams defense that ranked 28th in the league vs. the run last season. Even Tatum Bell, on that quick surface, could be worth a look, even as a change-of-pace option.
Who To Sit
QUARTERBACKS
1. Byron Leftwich, JAGUARS - Facing the Dallas defense could be an uphill battle this week. After watching the Cowboys preseason, the Jags may not be able to get on track in week one.
2. Brad Johnson, VIKINGS - Without a true number one WR and facing the Redskins defense on MNF, you may have better luck with another QB in your fantasy line-up.
3. Chris Simms, BUCS - --The Ravens will pressure Simms all game. Despite the upside projected for Simms in 2006, week one may not be the outcome he is hoping for.
RUNNING BACKS
1. Kevan Barlow, JETS - Word out of NY is that the Jets will use Running Back By Committee (RBBC) for week one. Fantasy nightmare until it all gets straightened out. I would wait until he gets his feet wet in the new system and officially claims his stake atop the depth chart. It figures to be a mix of Barlow, Derrick Blaylock, Cedric Houston and Leon Washington until someone takes charge.
2. Dominic Rhodes, COLTS - Another RBBC situation. Avoid until Indy names an every play RB.
3. Tatum Bell, BRONCOS - AS usual, Shanahan is playing head games with his players. Regardless, this yet another RBBC. Avoid until the mad scientist makes up his mind at RB.
4. Jamal Lewis, RAVENS - Baltimore's Jamal Lewis admits he isn't 100 percent with his ailing hip, but he's going to give it a go against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers ranked sixth against the run in 2005 and held all but five opponents to fewer than 92 yards on the ground.
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Muhsin Muhammad, BEARS - With Rex Grossman at QB and Packer Al Harris defending, this is a recipe for little or no fantasy production.
2. Doug Gabriel, PATRIOTS - Although Brady is a solid QB, his favorite WR is the "open" one. Give Gabriel some time to prove himself until he cracks your starting fantasy line-up.
3. Laveraneus Coles, JETS - Coles has a good match-up vs. TEN but give it until week two. With Pennington's injury history and a questionable running game, it may be some time until the Jets air game takes off.
TIGHT ENDS
1. Alex Smith, BUCS - We are not sold on Alex Smith being a starting fantasy tight end this season. Give the Ravens quality secondary, Smith's fantasy production will be limited.
2. Leonard Pope, CARDINALS - Despite having a good match-up, let the rookie produce before listing him your fantasy starting line-up.
DEFENSE
1. Detroit LIONS - Don't be surprised if Seattle racks up 30+ points against the Detroit Lions. Hell, the Lions Defense is not even worth a fantasy roster spot!
2. Kansas City CHIEFS - After Palmer's preseason display, we expect the Bengals to shred the Chiefs defense in their own home stadium!
Updated Every Tuesday After NFL Play
QUESTION MARKS
1. If you're in a league in which you have to start two passers, and you're thinking about starting Bills QB J.P. Losman against Bill Belichick's Patriots, don't. Think better of yourself. New England struggled, giving up a ton of passing yards, during an injury-plagued 2005, but the Patriots are sure to show Losman some looks he hasn't seen before in this one.
* denotes consecutive week of under performance
